2018 was a record year for Class 8 truck ordering, with North American truck-makers set to manufacture an estimated 335,000 big rigs this year. What was typically a 5-month ordering backlog is looking closer to 10 months, caused in part by increased demand and supplier issues. But at the end of 2018, we saw a cool down in demand. Evans President Ryan Keepman discusses the current state of the big rig manufacturing backlog.
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Hi, I’m Ryan Keepman, President at Evans Transportation.
The [big rig manufacturing] industry did see a record year in 2018. A lot of the big trucking buyers they all stopped taking orders because their backlog was was basically full. At this point in time, I think they're all predicting that this slowdown will occur. Well, it has. So, into the first quarter of this year, we're seeing a slowdown.
Now, for our business, we’re fortunate; we do service this industry pretty heavily. And a lot of those parts that still need to go out get manufactured and shipped out. So, I think you'll start to see the parts industry pick up. Whereas, the capital equipment side — where some of the bigger rigs were being manufactured at record levels over the course of the last year-and-a-half/two years — that will slow down naturally. It, again, goes in ebbs and flows, just like our economy does. Supply and demand changes over time.
Obviously, it’s a fear for all — salespeople and all those with budgetary responsibilities — that cancellations do occur or will occur, especially if we are coming into a slowdown in the economy. But, right now I think the the outlook is still very positive. I think the start to 2019 has been maybe stronger than some had predicted, or in line with what others had. Me, personally? I was a little bit more skeptical.
The industry saw significant slowdown in late August and into early October of last year 2018. I thought that would carry over into 2019, but we have not seen a slowdown at this time.